Kinder Essington August 11th, 2010
By Kinder Essington
August 11th, 2010
Articles Contributed: 127Comments Posted: 0Leaderboard Rank: N/A46 Views
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August 11th, 2010 As electric cars enter the consciousness of today's buyers, we read two kinds of articles. One states that China will be the undisputed King of electrics. Others point to the U.S. Ok. Who will it be? Those rooting for the U.S. point out that the U.S. as a whole seems much more willing to consider electric vehicles. More so than Europe or even China itself. So their feeling is that as a market, we will buy more electric cars per Capita than anywhere else, making us the "leader" in electrics. Those who point to China do so because of their burgeoning electric car industry. For instance, the U.S. currently has four major companies focusing on electric cars. Fisker. Tesla. Ford with the electric Focus and Transit connect. G.M. with the Volt. In China, major manufacturers such as BYD and Chery are either making or developing electric cars. But you ain't seen nothing yet. China also has the following: Shandong Boya New Energy Vehicle, Kent International Trading Co., Zhejiang Tyco Industries, Lianyungang Do Link International, Ningbo Shenjiang Group, Roadmaster Group, Changzhau Credit Interest Trading Group, Wuxi Xufeng Electric Bicycle Co, CMEC Suzhou Co., Jinan Shanglong International Co, Wending Green Home Co, Zhanjiang Kingstae Vehicle Co, Zhejiang BenBao Electric Vehicle Technology Co, ASA Group Asia Ltd., Sonik Holding Group Ltd.. Right now my Spell Check is going nuts. Two things. First, there may be more backyard companies working on electric cars in the U.S. of which we're aware. And there may be more "dirt floor" companies making electric cars in China. But lets just say there is a heck of a lot more ev production activity in China than the U.S. Second, many of the vehicles these Chinese companies make are pretty small and basic. Others aren't. But the point is that China has a lot of ev manufacturing, selling and servicing experience under its belt. So who's going to come out on top? As a manufacturer of ev's, China will probably outstrip the U.S.. The ev's suitable for the U.S. market will have to be sophisticated, upscale and expensive. This added to their limited range and utility will keep the numbers fairly low. For instance, Nissan and G.M. combined will build only 195,000 ev's a year by 2012...about 1.3 percent of the U.S. market. China, on the other hand, can supply all of Asia with small, inexpensive ev's which are more suited to those markets. And be sure that the central Government will have no qualms about choosing winners and losers among the ev makers. If one proves particularly strong, they will receive all kinds of help and funding to expand. And there's nothing stopping any of these makers to enter the U.S. market. In fact, we're pretty confident that someone like BYD and Chery will do just that. Eventually. The U.S. may well become a mature ev market before others if only because of all the Government money being spent to promote same. Of the Department of Energy's $25 billion dollars to promote ev's in the U.S., $8.5 billion has been given to vehicle companies, $2.4 has been given to battery companies, and the money is being used to fund those up-to-$7,500 subsidies for purchase. But then again, Spain's heavily subsidized push to sell ev's has flopped. So we will see. As usual, winning depends on how its defined. The U.S. may win by being accepting of sophisticated ev's. China may win because of their sheet tonnage. One thing in closing. Nobody seems to be thinking about Japan in this mix. They have proven themselves to be voracious consumers of hybrids, and electrics would make a lot of sense as urban vehicles in Japan's congested and polluted cities. Could Japan be the dark horse in this race?
BYD e6 electric crossover, Electric Avenue, 2010 Detroit Auto Show
Enlarge Photo
$10.3 billion is waiting in the wings for the Volt if GM clears the hurdles
Enlarge PhotoAs electric cars enter the consciousness of today's buyers, we read two kinds of articles.
One states that China will be the undisputed King of electrics.
Others point to the U.S.
Ok. Who will it be?
Those rooting for the U.S. point out that the U.S. as a whole seems much more willing to consider electric vehicles. More so than Europe or even China itself.
So their feeling is that as a market, we will buy more electric cars per Capita than anywhere else, making us the "leader" in electrics.
Those who point to China do so because of their burgeoning electric car industry.
For instance, the U.S. currently has four major companies focusing on electric cars. Fisker. Tesla. Ford with the electric Focus and Transit connect. G.M. with the Volt.
In China, major manufacturers such as BYD and Chery are either making or developing electric cars. But you ain't seen nothing yet.
China also has the following: Shandong Boya New Energy Vehicle, Kent International Trading Co., Zhejiang Tyco Industries, Lianyungang Do Link International, Ningbo Shenjiang Group, Roadmaster Group, Changzhau Credit Interest Trading Group, Wuxi Xufeng Electric Bicycle Co, CMEC Suzhou Co., Jinan Shanglong International Co, Wending Green Home Co, Zhanjiang Kingstae Vehicle Co, Zhejiang BenBao Electric Vehicle Technology Co, ASA Group Asia Ltd., Sonik Holding Group Ltd..
Right now my Spell Check is going nuts.
Two things.
First, there may be more backyard companies working on electric cars in the U.S. of which we're aware. And there may be more "dirt floor" companies making electric cars in China. But lets just say there is a heck of a lot more ev production activity in China than the U.S.
Second, many of the vehicles these Chinese companies make are pretty small and basic. Others aren't. But the point is that China has a lot of ev manufacturing, selling and servicing experience under its belt.
So who's going to come out on top?
As a manufacturer of ev's, China will probably outstrip the U.S.. The ev's suitable for the U.S. market will have to be sophisticated, upscale and expensive. This added to their limited range and utility will keep the numbers fairly low. For instance, Nissan and G.M. combined will build only 195,000 ev's a year by 2012...about 1.3 percent of the U.S. market.
China, on the other hand, can supply all of Asia with small, inexpensive ev's which are more suited to those markets. And be sure that the central Government will have no qualms about choosing winners and losers among the ev makers. If one proves particularly strong, they will receive all kinds of help and funding to expand. And there's nothing stopping any of these makers to enter the U.S. market. In fact, we're pretty confident that someone like BYD and Chery will do just that. Eventually.
The U.S. may well become a mature ev market before others if only because of all the Government money being spent to promote same.
Of the Department of Energy's $25 billion dollars to promote ev's in the U.S., $8.5 billion has been given to vehicle companies, $2.4 has been given to battery companies, and the money is being used to fund those up-to-$7,500 subsidies for purchase.
But then again, Spain's heavily subsidized push to sell ev's has flopped. So we will see.
As usual, winning depends on how its defined. The U.S. may win by being accepting of sophisticated ev's. China may win because of their sheet tonnage.
One thing in closing. Nobody seems to be thinking about Japan in this mix. They have proven themselves to be voracious consumers of hybrids, and electrics would make a lot of sense as urban vehicles in Japan's congested and polluted cities. Could Japan be the dark horse in this race?
