By BC Upham | June 22nd, 2010
In an attempt to bring some order to a fractured – and controversial – industry, two Canadian organizations have announced a partnership to develop a set of standards for carbon capture and storage (CCS).
Standards organization CSA Standards and the International Performance Assessment Centre for Geologic Storage of Carbon Dioxide (IPAC-CO2) hope the best practices they develop for the Canadian CCS industry will eventually provide a model for CCS standards internationally.
CCS is the process of pulling CO2 out of emissions from industrial and energy sources and pumping it into geological formations underground, instead of allowing the CO2 into the atmosphere where it contributes to global warming.
“This is a growing industry, and like any industry, you have technology going ahead of the standards,” said Joe Ralko, Manager of Corporate Communications for IPAC-CO2. Ralko predicted the CCS industry will be larger than the natural gas industry within forty years – a trillion dollar industry.
The standards the two organizations develop will be “cradle to grave,” according to Ralko, covering every aspect of the CCS process, and will be completed in 18 months.
There are several CCS research projects underway worldwide, but there is currently no universal set of standards governing the process of CO2 extraction, transport and sequestration. A universal set of standards for safety, storage site selection and other aspects of CCS would help regulators, environmental groups and industry determine whether a CCS project is safe and viable.
CCS has come under criticism as being an impractical and extremely expensive method of reducing emissions from fossil fuels.
The Department of Energy estimates CCS costs $150 per ton of CO2 (others say $200), but the technology is attractive to the coal industry and other big polluters, as it may prove a savior if a cap on industrial CO2 emissions is introduced.
Two professors at Houston University claimed in a paper publicized in April that CCS’s potential has been greatly exaggerated.
According to the paper by Michael Economides, professor of chemical engineering at Houston, and co-author Christene Ehlig-Economides, professor of energy engineering at Texas A&M University, it would take a geologic reservoir the size of a small state to store the CO2 from just one power plant.
Read more: http://www.triplepundit.com/2010/06/canadian-firms-to-design-worlds-first-carbon-capture-standard/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TriplePundit+%28Triple+Pundit%29#ixzz0rvoC4VZr
Saturday, 26 June 2010
USDA Releases Regional Roadmap for Biofuels
Published: 25 June 2010
Washington, D.C., United States -- This week, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack released a report outlining both the current state of renewable transportation fuels efforts in America and a plan to develop regional strategies to increase the production, marketing and distribution of biofuels.
USDA plans to adopt regional strategies that allow the placement of biorefineries in areas of economic distress through the leveraging of regional resources for transportation, labor and feedstocks.
The report provides information on current production and consumption capacities as well as projections to meet the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS2) mandate to use 36 billion gallons of biofuel per year in America's fuel supply by 2022.
"The Obama Administration has made domestic production of renewable energy a national priority because it will create jobs, combat global warming, reduce fossil fuel dependence and lay a strong foundation for a strong 21st Century rural economy, and I am confident that we can meet the threshold of producing 36 billion gallons of biofuel annually by 2022," Vilsack said.
The report provides data on the significant impact the ethanol industry will have on job creation. It is estimated that as many as 40 direct jobs and additional indirect jobs are created with each 100-million-gallon ethanol facility built. USDA plans to adopt regional strategies that allow the placement of biorefineries in areas of economic distress through the leveraging of regional resources for transportation, labor and feedstocks. The regional strategy provides greater potential for economic benefit.
"The current ethanol industry provides a solid foundation to build upon and reach the 36 billion gallon goal. As we prepare to celebrate Independence Day, we must reaffirm our commitment to bring our country closer to complete energy independence and this report provides a roadmap to achieve that goal," Vilsack continued.
Washington, D.C., United States -- This week, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack released a report outlining both the current state of renewable transportation fuels efforts in America and a plan to develop regional strategies to increase the production, marketing and distribution of biofuels.
USDA plans to adopt regional strategies that allow the placement of biorefineries in areas of economic distress through the leveraging of regional resources for transportation, labor and feedstocks.
The report provides information on current production and consumption capacities as well as projections to meet the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS2) mandate to use 36 billion gallons of biofuel per year in America's fuel supply by 2022.
"The Obama Administration has made domestic production of renewable energy a national priority because it will create jobs, combat global warming, reduce fossil fuel dependence and lay a strong foundation for a strong 21st Century rural economy, and I am confident that we can meet the threshold of producing 36 billion gallons of biofuel annually by 2022," Vilsack said.
The report provides data on the significant impact the ethanol industry will have on job creation. It is estimated that as many as 40 direct jobs and additional indirect jobs are created with each 100-million-gallon ethanol facility built. USDA plans to adopt regional strategies that allow the placement of biorefineries in areas of economic distress through the leveraging of regional resources for transportation, labor and feedstocks. The regional strategy provides greater potential for economic benefit.
"The current ethanol industry provides a solid foundation to build upon and reach the 36 billion gallon goal. As we prepare to celebrate Independence Day, we must reaffirm our commitment to bring our country closer to complete energy independence and this report provides a roadmap to achieve that goal," Vilsack continued.
Sweden Now Using More Biofuel Than Oil
Written by Philip Proefrock on 25/06/10
There's more news on the sustainable and renewable energy front in Europe. Not only is wind power nearly on par with natural gas in Europe, but in Sweden now, biomass has passed oil as the top source for energy generation. The most recent figures indicate that biomass energy production reached 115 terrawatt hours in 2009, representing 32% of all energy consumption. At the same time, oil-based fuels were used to produce 112 TWh. Biofuel use is expected to increase, while fossil fuel use should further decline in the coming years.
Biofueled combined heat and power (CHP) plants generate heat for more than half of the multifamily dwelling units in Sweden, as well as producing electricity. Sweden has a goal to have renewable energy reach 50% of all energy consumed in the country by 2020 and to be independent from imported fossil fuel for all transportation by 2030.
Wood is the source for the vast majority of the fuel used. However, the increased use of wood for energy has led to higher prices for other products requiring logs and paper pulp.
There's more news on the sustainable and renewable energy front in Europe. Not only is wind power nearly on par with natural gas in Europe, but in Sweden now, biomass has passed oil as the top source for energy generation. The most recent figures indicate that biomass energy production reached 115 terrawatt hours in 2009, representing 32% of all energy consumption. At the same time, oil-based fuels were used to produce 112 TWh. Biofuel use is expected to increase, while fossil fuel use should further decline in the coming years.
Biofueled combined heat and power (CHP) plants generate heat for more than half of the multifamily dwelling units in Sweden, as well as producing electricity. Sweden has a goal to have renewable energy reach 50% of all energy consumed in the country by 2020 and to be independent from imported fossil fuel for all transportation by 2030.
Wood is the source for the vast majority of the fuel used. However, the increased use of wood for energy has led to higher prices for other products requiring logs and paper pulp.
Tidal power still has a future in N.B
Energy minister says tidal technology still not commercially viable
Last Updated: Friday, June 25, 2010 | 6:24 AM AT
CBC News
New Brunswick's quest for tidal power isn't dead despite Irving Oil's decision to pull the plug on its research project, according to Energy Minister Jack Keir.
Keir said Thursday he wasn't given a reason why Irving Oil opted to abandon its tidal research project in the Bay of Fundy, including parts of Passamaquoddy Bay, Cape Enrage and the Cape Spencer area near Saint John.
The energy minister said he doesn't think the technology to generate electricity from the tides is commercially viable right now, and that may have led to the company's decision.
He also points to the challenges Nova Scotia Power is facing with a test turbine that broke earlier this month in Minas Passage.
"It's six storeys high, the size of a football field and I think it generates — when it's working — one megawatt of electricity. You know it's just — the technology just isn't there yet," Keir said.
Irving Oil partnered with the Huntsman Marine Science Centre in St. Andrews and started research in May 2008 on how to harness the Fundy tides to make electricity.
Despite the setback, Keir said the New Brunswick government hasn't given up on tidal power.
Now that the Irving project is dead, the energy department plans to watch developments in Nova Scotia closely and encourage private sector investment. Keir said he expects to issue another request for proposals once he's reviewed the file.
Tide tests held promise
Irving Oil's sudden decision to halt the tidal project didn't just catch politicians off guard.
Patrick Fitzgerald, the operations manager for the Huntsman Marine Science Centre in St. Andrews, is putting away his tidal research equipment.
The centre was measuring the speed and direction of the current at five of the 11 Crown land sites that Irving Oil was given rights to, and Fitzgerald said the results of those tests were promising.
But last week, after conducting a strategic review, Fitzgerald said Irving terminated the project without explanation.
"I think there was a number of factors that played into it, everything from the current world price of energy, to the political climate, to the technology challenges doing this," Fitzgerald said.
Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2010/06/25/nb-keir-tidal-research-irving-538.html?ref=rss#ixzz0rvmWWB00
Last Updated: Friday, June 25, 2010 | 6:24 AM AT
CBC News
New Brunswick's quest for tidal power isn't dead despite Irving Oil's decision to pull the plug on its research project, according to Energy Minister Jack Keir.
Keir said Thursday he wasn't given a reason why Irving Oil opted to abandon its tidal research project in the Bay of Fundy, including parts of Passamaquoddy Bay, Cape Enrage and the Cape Spencer area near Saint John.
The energy minister said he doesn't think the technology to generate electricity from the tides is commercially viable right now, and that may have led to the company's decision.
He also points to the challenges Nova Scotia Power is facing with a test turbine that broke earlier this month in Minas Passage.
"It's six storeys high, the size of a football field and I think it generates — when it's working — one megawatt of electricity. You know it's just — the technology just isn't there yet," Keir said.
Irving Oil partnered with the Huntsman Marine Science Centre in St. Andrews and started research in May 2008 on how to harness the Fundy tides to make electricity.
Despite the setback, Keir said the New Brunswick government hasn't given up on tidal power.
Now that the Irving project is dead, the energy department plans to watch developments in Nova Scotia closely and encourage private sector investment. Keir said he expects to issue another request for proposals once he's reviewed the file.
Tide tests held promise
Irving Oil's sudden decision to halt the tidal project didn't just catch politicians off guard.
Patrick Fitzgerald, the operations manager for the Huntsman Marine Science Centre in St. Andrews, is putting away his tidal research equipment.
The centre was measuring the speed and direction of the current at five of the 11 Crown land sites that Irving Oil was given rights to, and Fitzgerald said the results of those tests were promising.
But last week, after conducting a strategic review, Fitzgerald said Irving terminated the project without explanation.
"I think there was a number of factors that played into it, everything from the current world price of energy, to the political climate, to the technology challenges doing this," Fitzgerald said.
Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2010/06/25/nb-keir-tidal-research-irving-538.html?ref=rss#ixzz0rvmWWB00
Kenya hopes to become Africa's carbon trade hub
Duncan Mboya
21 June 2010
The government also allocated US$721 million to conservation
[NAIROBI] Kenya has announced plans to establish a regional carbon emissions trading scheme to steer Africa's carbon market.
This would hopefully position the country as the continent's carbon credit trade hub, finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta said in his budget speech to parliament earlier this month (10 June).
Kenyatta said a framework for carbon trading — in which polluters buy and sell the right to emit carbon — would be set up to outline how to register to participate in the scheme, how revenue would be shared and how to ensure accountability.
The framework would also describe development areas to be funded by the resources generated from the scheme.
Kenyatta said a carbon credit investment framework would help streamline conservation efforts and alleviate poverty in the country, saying it had the potential to attract billions of Kenyan shillings annually.
The government also allocated 58 billion Kenyan shillings (US$721 million) for environmental conservation in the 2010/11 financial year — a more than 50 per cent rise from the previous year's US$473 million.
Out of this, US$640 million will go to the environment, water and sanitation sectors, in efforts aimed at reversing what many see as Kenya's battered biodiversity systems.
"Efforts must be made through comprehensive environmental conservation to forestall the adverse effects of climate change in order to reverse damages to our scarce arable land, water and biodiversity resources," Kenyatta told parliament.
"The government recognises that the restoration of ecosystems provides the key to reducing poverty, creating employment and improving food security."
Fredrick Njau, of the Nairobi-based Green Belt Movement, told SciDev.Net he believed the trading scheme would improve the livelihoods of communities by generating money in exchange for trees planted.
"This is the first time in the past 30 years that communities are set to benefit from planting trees in this country," he said.
Claudia Ringler, a senior research fellow at the US-based International Food Policy Research Institute, said: "It is certainly laudable that Kenya plans to set up a regional emissions trading scheme for Africa.
"[But] setting up such a system is highly complex and will require a large amount of resources and capacity development. It is not clear if the government has the will or the resources needed to both develop and keep such a system alive.
"Secondly, while a Kenya-based scheme could and should support poor rural smallholder farmers in the country, reaching out to farmers, pastoralists and those in charge of conserving forests will be even more complex, and has yet to be achieved at scale by existing voluntary carbon markets."
21 June 2010
The government also allocated US$721 million to conservation
[NAIROBI] Kenya has announced plans to establish a regional carbon emissions trading scheme to steer Africa's carbon market.
This would hopefully position the country as the continent's carbon credit trade hub, finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta said in his budget speech to parliament earlier this month (10 June).
Kenyatta said a framework for carbon trading — in which polluters buy and sell the right to emit carbon — would be set up to outline how to register to participate in the scheme, how revenue would be shared and how to ensure accountability.
The framework would also describe development areas to be funded by the resources generated from the scheme.
Kenyatta said a carbon credit investment framework would help streamline conservation efforts and alleviate poverty in the country, saying it had the potential to attract billions of Kenyan shillings annually.
The government also allocated 58 billion Kenyan shillings (US$721 million) for environmental conservation in the 2010/11 financial year — a more than 50 per cent rise from the previous year's US$473 million.
Out of this, US$640 million will go to the environment, water and sanitation sectors, in efforts aimed at reversing what many see as Kenya's battered biodiversity systems.
"Efforts must be made through comprehensive environmental conservation to forestall the adverse effects of climate change in order to reverse damages to our scarce arable land, water and biodiversity resources," Kenyatta told parliament.
"The government recognises that the restoration of ecosystems provides the key to reducing poverty, creating employment and improving food security."
Fredrick Njau, of the Nairobi-based Green Belt Movement, told SciDev.Net he believed the trading scheme would improve the livelihoods of communities by generating money in exchange for trees planted.
"This is the first time in the past 30 years that communities are set to benefit from planting trees in this country," he said.
Claudia Ringler, a senior research fellow at the US-based International Food Policy Research Institute, said: "It is certainly laudable that Kenya plans to set up a regional emissions trading scheme for Africa.
"[But] setting up such a system is highly complex and will require a large amount of resources and capacity development. It is not clear if the government has the will or the resources needed to both develop and keep such a system alive.
"Secondly, while a Kenya-based scheme could and should support poor rural smallholder farmers in the country, reaching out to farmers, pastoralists and those in charge of conserving forests will be even more complex, and has yet to be achieved at scale by existing voluntary carbon markets."
Japanese told to go to bed an hour early to cut carbon emissions
Japanese households are being urged to go to bed one hour earlier than normal in order to help tackle climate change.
Danielle Demetriou in Tokyo
Published: 12:38PM BST 24 Jun 2010
The Japanese government has launched a campaign encouraging people to go to bed and get up extra early in order to reduce household carbon dioxide emissions.
The Morning Challenge campaign, unveiled by the Environment Ministry, is based on the premise that swapping late night electricity for an extra hour of morning sunlight could significantly cut the nation's carbon footprint.
A typical family can reduce its carbon dioxide footprint by 85kg a year if everyone goes to bed and gets up one hour earlier, according to the campaign.
The amount of carbon dioxide emissions potentially saved from going to bed an hour early was the equivalent of 20 per cent of annual emissions from household lights, "Many Japanese people waste electric power at night time, for example by watching TV until very late," a ministry spokesperson told The Daily Telegraph.
"But going to bed early and getting up early can avoid wasting electrical power which causes carbon dioxide emissions. If people change their lifestyle, we can save energy and reduce emissions." The campaign also proposes that people take advantage of an extra hour of morning sunlight by improve their lifestyles in general by running, doing yoga and eating a nutritious breakfast.
It is the latest initiative tackling climate change by the Japanese environment ministry, which is faced with the challenge of reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 25 per cent from 1990 levels within the next decade.
It was the same government department that launched the high profile Cool Biz campaign five years ago, which encourages workers to wear short-sleeved shirts and offices not to turn air con lower than 28 degrees during the summer.
Danielle Demetriou in Tokyo
Published: 12:38PM BST 24 Jun 2010
The Japanese government has launched a campaign encouraging people to go to bed and get up extra early in order to reduce household carbon dioxide emissions.
The Morning Challenge campaign, unveiled by the Environment Ministry, is based on the premise that swapping late night electricity for an extra hour of morning sunlight could significantly cut the nation's carbon footprint.
A typical family can reduce its carbon dioxide footprint by 85kg a year if everyone goes to bed and gets up one hour earlier, according to the campaign.
The amount of carbon dioxide emissions potentially saved from going to bed an hour early was the equivalent of 20 per cent of annual emissions from household lights, "Many Japanese people waste electric power at night time, for example by watching TV until very late," a ministry spokesperson told The Daily Telegraph.
"But going to bed early and getting up early can avoid wasting electrical power which causes carbon dioxide emissions. If people change their lifestyle, we can save energy and reduce emissions." The campaign also proposes that people take advantage of an extra hour of morning sunlight by improve their lifestyles in general by running, doing yoga and eating a nutritious breakfast.
It is the latest initiative tackling climate change by the Japanese environment ministry, which is faced with the challenge of reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 25 per cent from 1990 levels within the next decade.
It was the same government department that launched the high profile Cool Biz campaign five years ago, which encourages workers to wear short-sleeved shirts and offices not to turn air con lower than 28 degrees during the summer.
Greens face a battle in California
Californians will have their say on global warming at the ballot box, writes Geoffrey Lean.
By Geoffrey Lean
Published: 6:43PM BST 25 Jun 2010
Grey area: Los Angeles wreathed in smog. California is voting on whether to suspend its ambitious environmental measures Photo: Getty Images Mark the date – November 2. It will see the outcome of the most crucial battle yet between the old economy and the new, between the fossil-fuel-powered industrialisation of the last two centuries that has enriched much of the world and the low-carbon prosperity that is needed in future. Indeed, it bids to be a pivotal point in the biggest economic transition since the Industrial Revolution.
The battle will take place in California, of course, where trends tend to originate, and where the environmental movement first took off more than four decades ago. It will focus that most bad-tempered of slanging matches, overglorified as the "global warming debate". And it will deliver much the most important popular verdict so far on what, if anything should be done to combat climate change – 10 years, almost to the day, after the election of George W Bush pulled the United States out of international attempts to address it.
Why Whitehall hates solar panelsFor on that date, US mid-term election day, Californians will vote on whether to suspend their state's ambitious anti-global warming law that sets out to reduce carbon emissions to 1990 levels by 2025, and 80 per cent below them by 2050. It also promotes the use of renewable energy and is credited with giving the state a worldwide lead in developing clean technologies.
An official analysis by California's Air Resources Board concluded that the law would increase economic production by $27 billion, while its Employment Development Department says that nearly half a million people in the state are already employed in "green jobs". Renewable energy typically employs at least three times as many people per dollar invested as fossil fuels and John Doerr, Silicon Valley's leading venture capitalist calls "green tech" the "biggest economic opportunity of the 21st century".
Opponents retort that the law will cost Californians billions of dollars in higher fuel and electricity prices and lead to job losses. They have now gathered more than 800,000 signatures – nearly twice as many as they needed – to get its suspension on November's ballot paper.
Their resolution would halt enforcement of the law until the state's unemployment rate sinks to no more than 5.5 per cent over a whole year. That might be a very long time coming – that has only happened twice in the past 34 years, and the rate now stands at 12.4 per cent.
Perhaps unsurprisingly the campaign was launched – and its $3 million cost has mainly been financed – by two big Texan oil companies, provoking an equally predictable hissy fit from the Governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, who regards the legislation as a key part of his legacy. "This initiative, sponsored by greedy Texas oil companies," he said this week, "would cripple California's fastest-growing economic sector, reverse our renewable energy policy and decimate our environmental progress for the benefit of those oil companies' profit margins."
More significantly, the new industry has begun mobilising to fight off the threat from the old. Some 300 cleantech companies have joined to raise money in support of the law, which Eric Schmidt, Google's chief executive, calls "an incubator of innovation". They even have an ally in Ronald Reagan's old Treasury Secretary, George Schultz, who calls the resolution a "misguided proposition" that will harm "growing entrepreneurial ventures".
With deep pockets and high emotions, on both sides, we are in for an epic, the outcome of which will be felt way beyond the Golden State. Passage of the resolution would not kill off all its green measures – regulations to clean car engines and promote renewable electricity would remain – but it would have a powerful, chilling effect on combating climate change worldwide. Its defeat, on the other hand, could give them a needed boost.
Already the battle is spilling over into California's gubernatorial race. Jerry Brown, the Democratic candidate, wants to expand renewable energy even further, while Meg Whitman, his opponent, has vowed to suspend the law for a year. And climate change has featured heavily in primary battles in several states.
It will also be at the heart of the coming Australian general election. Opposition leader Tony Abbott toppled his predecessor last year on a climate sceptic platform, while the reverse has just happened with the premiership. Disillusion with prime minister Kevin Rudd, which led to his fall this week, goes back to his shelving of a carbon trading scheme supported by two thirds of voters in marginal seats: his British‑born successor, Julia Gillard, promptly promised to revive it.
So, on both sides of the world, voters will give their verdict this autumn on whether greening the economy would deepen the recession or provide a sustainable way out of it. The polls could mark the moment when environmental issues are finally recognised as also being economic ones – and that would be an important transition, too.
An unexpected boost for overseas aid
Perhaps the most extraordinary thing about the Government’s tax and spending plans is the decision not just to ringfence the budget for overseas aid, but to increase it.
Next year it will rise from the present 0.52 per cent of Britain’s GDP to 0.6 per cent, en route to reaching the official UN target of 0.7 per cent by 2013. And David Cameron is now at the G8 summit in Canada trying to persuade fellow leaders to follow suit.
This contradicts Alistair Darling’s assertion that George Osborne has gone “far further” in his assault on spending than Margaret Thatcher – the Iron Lady immediately took an axe to the aid programme.
Her chosen hatchet man, Neil Marten – appointed as aid minister – apparently thought that world poverty was invented by the BBC. Once, when the news was showing harrowing footage of skeletal people in a famine in Uganda, he turned to an aide and asked: “Tell me. How do they fake those pictures? How do they fake them?”
This mindset did not endear him to his high-minded officials. When he was swimming in the sea on an African trip, his Civil Service escort told their host that it was time they were leaving. The host replied that it might be good to call the minister in anyway, as a shark had been seen in the area recently. “Come to think of it,” ruminated the official, “we have probably got plenty of time after all.”
UN roots for eco-friendly farming
Feeding a rapidly growing population is going to require much more intensive agriculture, right? Wrong. So concluded a meeting of top international experts this week, as news breaks of attempts to build record-sized factory farms in Britain and, as we report today, every supermarket in Britain is selling meat from animals fed GM crops.
The experts, convened by the United Nations, concluded counterintuitively that “the best option” was not to use ever more fertilisers, pesticides and machines but to adopt environmentally friendly practices going by the ugly name of agro‑ecology – planting trees and crops together, mixing livestock and arable farming, and using natural predators to control pests and diseases.
It sounds unlikely, but there is evidence that it works. Prof Jules Pretty of Essex University, who looked at 286 projects in 57 developing countries, in the biggest study of its kind, recorded an average 79 per cent increase in yields, while 350,000 acres of land in what used to be called “the Desert of Tanzania” have been rehabilitated in this way over two decades.
Using lots of chemicals still produces more food in the short term. But most Third World farmers cannot afford them and intensive methods degrade the soil; agro‑ecology preserves and nourishes it. It could also combat climate change: planting trees with crops, says the Nairobi-based World Agroforestry Centre, could make a third of the cuts in atmospheric carbon-dioxide the world needs.
By Geoffrey Lean
Published: 6:43PM BST 25 Jun 2010
Grey area: Los Angeles wreathed in smog. California is voting on whether to suspend its ambitious environmental measures Photo: Getty Images Mark the date – November 2. It will see the outcome of the most crucial battle yet between the old economy and the new, between the fossil-fuel-powered industrialisation of the last two centuries that has enriched much of the world and the low-carbon prosperity that is needed in future. Indeed, it bids to be a pivotal point in the biggest economic transition since the Industrial Revolution.
The battle will take place in California, of course, where trends tend to originate, and where the environmental movement first took off more than four decades ago. It will focus that most bad-tempered of slanging matches, overglorified as the "global warming debate". And it will deliver much the most important popular verdict so far on what, if anything should be done to combat climate change – 10 years, almost to the day, after the election of George W Bush pulled the United States out of international attempts to address it.
Why Whitehall hates solar panelsFor on that date, US mid-term election day, Californians will vote on whether to suspend their state's ambitious anti-global warming law that sets out to reduce carbon emissions to 1990 levels by 2025, and 80 per cent below them by 2050. It also promotes the use of renewable energy and is credited with giving the state a worldwide lead in developing clean technologies.
An official analysis by California's Air Resources Board concluded that the law would increase economic production by $27 billion, while its Employment Development Department says that nearly half a million people in the state are already employed in "green jobs". Renewable energy typically employs at least three times as many people per dollar invested as fossil fuels and John Doerr, Silicon Valley's leading venture capitalist calls "green tech" the "biggest economic opportunity of the 21st century".
Opponents retort that the law will cost Californians billions of dollars in higher fuel and electricity prices and lead to job losses. They have now gathered more than 800,000 signatures – nearly twice as many as they needed – to get its suspension on November's ballot paper.
Their resolution would halt enforcement of the law until the state's unemployment rate sinks to no more than 5.5 per cent over a whole year. That might be a very long time coming – that has only happened twice in the past 34 years, and the rate now stands at 12.4 per cent.
Perhaps unsurprisingly the campaign was launched – and its $3 million cost has mainly been financed – by two big Texan oil companies, provoking an equally predictable hissy fit from the Governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, who regards the legislation as a key part of his legacy. "This initiative, sponsored by greedy Texas oil companies," he said this week, "would cripple California's fastest-growing economic sector, reverse our renewable energy policy and decimate our environmental progress for the benefit of those oil companies' profit margins."
More significantly, the new industry has begun mobilising to fight off the threat from the old. Some 300 cleantech companies have joined to raise money in support of the law, which Eric Schmidt, Google's chief executive, calls "an incubator of innovation". They even have an ally in Ronald Reagan's old Treasury Secretary, George Schultz, who calls the resolution a "misguided proposition" that will harm "growing entrepreneurial ventures".
With deep pockets and high emotions, on both sides, we are in for an epic, the outcome of which will be felt way beyond the Golden State. Passage of the resolution would not kill off all its green measures – regulations to clean car engines and promote renewable electricity would remain – but it would have a powerful, chilling effect on combating climate change worldwide. Its defeat, on the other hand, could give them a needed boost.
Already the battle is spilling over into California's gubernatorial race. Jerry Brown, the Democratic candidate, wants to expand renewable energy even further, while Meg Whitman, his opponent, has vowed to suspend the law for a year. And climate change has featured heavily in primary battles in several states.
It will also be at the heart of the coming Australian general election. Opposition leader Tony Abbott toppled his predecessor last year on a climate sceptic platform, while the reverse has just happened with the premiership. Disillusion with prime minister Kevin Rudd, which led to his fall this week, goes back to his shelving of a carbon trading scheme supported by two thirds of voters in marginal seats: his British‑born successor, Julia Gillard, promptly promised to revive it.
So, on both sides of the world, voters will give their verdict this autumn on whether greening the economy would deepen the recession or provide a sustainable way out of it. The polls could mark the moment when environmental issues are finally recognised as also being economic ones – and that would be an important transition, too.
An unexpected boost for overseas aid
Perhaps the most extraordinary thing about the Government’s tax and spending plans is the decision not just to ringfence the budget for overseas aid, but to increase it.
Next year it will rise from the present 0.52 per cent of Britain’s GDP to 0.6 per cent, en route to reaching the official UN target of 0.7 per cent by 2013. And David Cameron is now at the G8 summit in Canada trying to persuade fellow leaders to follow suit.
This contradicts Alistair Darling’s assertion that George Osborne has gone “far further” in his assault on spending than Margaret Thatcher – the Iron Lady immediately took an axe to the aid programme.
Her chosen hatchet man, Neil Marten – appointed as aid minister – apparently thought that world poverty was invented by the BBC. Once, when the news was showing harrowing footage of skeletal people in a famine in Uganda, he turned to an aide and asked: “Tell me. How do they fake those pictures? How do they fake them?”
This mindset did not endear him to his high-minded officials. When he was swimming in the sea on an African trip, his Civil Service escort told their host that it was time they were leaving. The host replied that it might be good to call the minister in anyway, as a shark had been seen in the area recently. “Come to think of it,” ruminated the official, “we have probably got plenty of time after all.”
UN roots for eco-friendly farming
Feeding a rapidly growing population is going to require much more intensive agriculture, right? Wrong. So concluded a meeting of top international experts this week, as news breaks of attempts to build record-sized factory farms in Britain and, as we report today, every supermarket in Britain is selling meat from animals fed GM crops.
The experts, convened by the United Nations, concluded counterintuitively that “the best option” was not to use ever more fertilisers, pesticides and machines but to adopt environmentally friendly practices going by the ugly name of agro‑ecology – planting trees and crops together, mixing livestock and arable farming, and using natural predators to control pests and diseases.
It sounds unlikely, but there is evidence that it works. Prof Jules Pretty of Essex University, who looked at 286 projects in 57 developing countries, in the biggest study of its kind, recorded an average 79 per cent increase in yields, while 350,000 acres of land in what used to be called “the Desert of Tanzania” have been rehabilitated in this way over two decades.
Using lots of chemicals still produces more food in the short term. But most Third World farmers cannot afford them and intensive methods degrade the soil; agro‑ecology preserves and nourishes it. It could also combat climate change: planting trees with crops, says the Nairobi-based World Agroforestry Centre, could make a third of the cuts in atmospheric carbon-dioxide the world needs.
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