BIOFUELS/EUROPE =3

05 Jul 2010 10:54:32 GMT
Source: Reuters
FINAL WORD -- OR NOT

There were other eyebrow-raising incidents. Those following the biofuels debate had long awaited a report commissioned by the Commission's trade unit. Researchers at the Washington-based International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) had fine-tuned a powerful global economic database called GTAP to help in their work, and promised the deepest exploration yet into the complex global ramifications of biofuels. This, several EU officials predicted, would be the final word in the debate.

Needless to say, it wasn't. The report, which appeared on March 24, concluded that Europe's biofuels strategy would do little of the damage it had been charged with. But when experts began to look at the data that had been fed into the study by the Commission's energy officials, they were surprised by what they found.

For example, key assumptions played down the contribution traditional biofuels would make towards the EU's 10 percent goal, while simultaneously pushing up the role of other types of less-damaging renewable energies, such as electric cars and advanced biofuels made from waste.

Most striking was the assumption that by 2020, 20 percent of all new cars sold would be electric -- a figure which massively exceeds most reliable forecasts.

The European Automobile Manufacturers' Association predicts 3 to 10 percent of European cars will be electric in 10 years. The Commission itself launched its electric vehicle strategy in April with a forecast of a 1 to 2 percent share for electric cars and a similar figure for hybrids. When it comes to assessing the environmental damage of biofuels, the Commission had apparently asked its researchers to use a five-fold exaggeration of its own electric car forecasts.

Other problems emerged. The Washington researchers based their modelling on the assumption that about 15 percent of biofuels used in Europe in 2020 would be less-damaging "second generation" fuels brewed from straw and crop residues rather than grain. But numerous European Commission forecasts, most notably its Strategic Energy Technology plan of Oct. 2009, predicted that the technology needed for second-generation biofuels production would only begin to come on stream "around 2015-20."

"A public authority is always obliged to be factually correct," says Bernhard Wegener, professor of law at Germany's University of Erlangen-Nuremberg. "It is always a breach of that obligation if somebody willingly and deliberately feeds wrong information into the decision-making process."

Last week, as Brussels baked under the hottest temperatures this year, the author of the IFPRI report, David Laborde, attempted to explain his methods to a fractious crowd of commission officials and critics, among them T&E's Urbancic and Grabiel of ClientEarth.

Standing before his slideshow in a Commission meeting room, Laborde navigated a delicate line as Grabiel drilled into his research. No, said Laborde, he didn't think European officials had fed him biased assumptions, or at least he wasn't in a position to judge. And yes, he was "relatively optimistic" the policy would have a "slightly positive" effect on climate change.

But in one area, he clearly disowned the assumptions the Commission had given him -- that almost half the EU's new thirst for biofuels would be quenched with bioethanol, which has much better climate credentials than biodiesel. The Commission predicts a 55/45 split between biodiesel and bioethanol in 2020 but "if you look at the trends, we're not going to reach this target," Laborde said. "It would be more like 80/20."

Some officials looked uncomfortably around them, or at the floor, apparently eager to move on.

POLICY CHANGE?

Rumours have now begun to emerge of a deliberate campaign. Two EU sources say Commission officials coached lobbyists on how best to attack the emerging science of indirect land use change.

The biofuels industry continues to argue that the science is so poorly understood that it would be premature for Europe to change its goal.

Environmentalists counter that amid such uncertainty it would be foolish to continue. "I was never happy with this 10 percent target, and I'm still not happy," says Bas Eickhout, a Dutch Green group politician who previously worked as a renewable energy analyst. "We'll have to consider how to deal with the factor of indirect land use change, and let's put in place a review clause, acknowledging that the science will become more and more clear."

The European Biodiesel Board says it is ready for a debate as long as the oil extraction industry comes under the same intense scrutiny as biofuels. "Let's have that debate, but let it be fair," says secretary general Raffaello Garofalo. "Nobody is talking about the indirect effects of oil. Look at what's happening in the Gulf of Mexico with BP. Or we could talk about impacts in the Niger Delta."

If a proper public debate does ever happen, even more difficult questions may emerge. What gives Europe the right to lecture developing countries on how they should use their land? After all, Europe has spent millennia deforesting its lands and is one of the major historical culprits behind climate change. Why impose tighter standards for the vegetable oils that are burned in cars than those that are used in the kitchen? How do we account for waste animal fats that are as likely to end up in cosmetics and beauty products as they are in the fuel tank of a car?

Biofuels have become the first real test-case for a post-oil era in which food, animal feed, fuel and chemicals compete for land in a new bio-economy. Whatever conclusion Europe reaches "may set the agenda for sustainable land use for the future", says Eickhout. "It touches on social issues, environment issues, trade issues, energy issues and more."

Even without a debate, the likelihood of a policy shift in Brussels has grown. After 20 years in German politics, Guenther Oettinger is the kind of man who loathes controversy and policy dysfunction. Many of the architects of the biofuels policy were replaced in an overhaul in January.

"We promote only sustainable biofuels and take the phenomenon of indirect land use very seriously," he said in a written response to Reuters. "This is why we have launched several studies on this. If it is confirmed that indeed that there is a serious problem related to indirect land use, we may adapt our legislation."

(Reporting by Peter Harrison; Editing by Simon Robinson and Sara Ledwith)